Posted on by Adonis Hoffman, Esq.

The Future of Conservative Media

The slaying of conservative activist and media personality Charlie Kirk as he spoke at a campus rally in Utah was a tragedy on many levels: the wrenching of a devoted family man from his wife and young children; the fatal silencing of a speaker in a nation where freedom of speech is a constitutional guarantee; and a manifestation of the increasingly brutal partisanship gripping this country.

This senseless killing also has drawn newfound attention to the environment in which Charlie Kirk thrived – the catalyst that propelled him to the forefront of a movement, making him a hero to millions and a public figure to all: conservative media.   

How did conservative media rise to its present position of prominence and what exactly does it encompass today? And perhaps more importantly, how will the legal, economic, political, and cultural challenges it currently faces shape its structure and impact in the future?

Conservative Media Today

In early September 2025, a federal judge in Florida dismissed Newsmax’s antitrust suit against Fox News. The ruling turned not on ideology but on form. In fact, the Eleventh Circuit derisively called it a “shotgun pleading,” – a complaint so sprawling and imprecise that it collapses under its own weight. 1  The dismissal was without prejudice, meaning Newsmax could amend its pleading and file again.

Beyond this procedural skirmish, there are substantive issues. Is Fox abusing market power in “conservative media”? Is “conservative media” even a discrete market, or is it, rather, a cultural force spilling across cable, radio, podcasts, and social platforms?

For lawyers, the answer is technical. Markets are defined by substitutability, by whether consumers shift when prices or quality change. But for the millions of Americans who rely on Fox, Newsmax, or any number of talk radio hosts and podcasters, the stakes feel existential. The case might be a bellwether of the unsettled future of conservative media, even if it never reaches the merits.  

Conservative media is not simply a set of businesses competing for viewers. It is a political ecosystem, a cultural community, and, at times, a parallel republic of ideas. Its fortunes are bound to the rise and fall of the Republican Party, the temperament of conservative voters, and the shifting economics of news.

Fox’s dominance is undeniable. Newsmax’s challenge is unmistakable. And yet, the deeper truth is this: Conservative media has spilled its banks. It is cable and streaming, podcasts and radio, tweets and TikTok. It is at once profitable, polarizing, and protean. The lawsuit, even if dismissed, opens the door to a debate America cannot avoid.

To understand where conservative media is going, we must look back at where it came from, take account of its present state, and anticipate how law, technology, and politics will shape its future.

Conservative Media – From Margins to Mainstream

Conservative media did not begin with Fox. Its roots lie in the mid-20th century, when William F. Buckley Jr. launched National Review in 1955.2  Buckley gave intellectual coherence to a movement that had long been fragmented among libertarians, traditionalists, and anti-communists. His magazine was never mass market, but it created a vocabulary and network that would feed into electoral politics. It was a platform that gave coherence to an intellectual insurgency.

The broadcast era proved more complicated. Under the Fairness Doctrine – adopted in 1949 and enforced until 1987 – broadcasters were required to provide balanced coverage of controversial issues.3  This all but choked partisan programming on radio and television. But when the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) repealed the Doctrine during the Reagan Administration, the airwaves opened. Within a year, Rush Limbaugh went national, and AM talk radio became the beating heart of conservative grassroots politics, filling the airtime with bombast, wit, and populist grievance.4   He turned the medium into a movement, and America would never be the same.

The rise of talk radio coincided with the Reagan revolution, the emergence of Newt Gingrich’s combative Congress, and a right-leaning backlash against what conservatives saw as a liberal media monopoly. By the mid-1990s, Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes saw opportunity. In 1996, Fox News launched with the slogan “Fair and Balanced.” It was at once an ideological declaration and a business strategy. For millions, it delivered something else: recognition.5

The network became both mirror and megaphone. After 9/11, it rallied the right. In the Obama years, it became the loyal opposition. With Trump, it transformed into both platform and power broker. Fox thrived because it spoke to an underserved audience, because cable distribution expanded, and because Ailes fused television showmanship with partisan politics. By the early 2000s, Fox was not just another cable network; it was the most profitable, most influential news channel in America. Its primetime hosts became household names, and its editorial slant became a cultural lightning rod.6

The Media Ecosystem

The old media world was simple: cable reigned, and ratings ruled. Not anymore.

Nearly three decades after Fox’s launch, the conservative media ecosystem is more crowded, more fragmented, and more technologically diverse than ever. Cable remains central, but it is no longer the only arena.

Cable and Broadcast. Fox News remains the dominant force, averaging more than 2 million nightly viewers and generating outsized profits.7  Newsmax, launched in 2014, has grown significantly since 2020, appealing to viewers disillusioned with Fox’s coverage of the Trump election saga. One America News Network (OANN) is still seeking widespread carriage agreements and struggling to find solid footing in the marketplace.8

Streaming and Digital Video. The conservative migration to digital platforms has accelerated. Rumble, a Canadian-based video platform positioning itself as a censorship-free alternative to YouTube, has reported more than 50 million monthly active users in 2025.9  The Daily Wire+, founded by Ben Shapiro and Jeremy Boreing, has built a subscription empire that spans podcasts, documentaries, and cultural commentary.10  Blaze TV, created by Glenn Beck, continues to cultivate a loyal subscriber base.11

Podcasts. Audio and video podcasts have become the new frontier. The podcast format offers intimacy, flexibility, and global reach, with relatively low production costs and a big upside. Shapiro, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, and Megyn Kelly rank among the most downloaded conservative voices.12  Tucker Carlson, ousted from Fox in 2023, now commands millions of views for his interviews on X (formerly Twitter) and elsewhere.13  And there is Joe Rogan, who defies categorization but leans conservative on most cultural issues and attracts a big audience.

Talk Radio. Despite predictions of decline, conservative talk radio remains a formidable force. Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and countless regional hosts still draw millions of daily listeners.14 The car commute, particularly in suburban and rural America, continues to anchor radio’s relevance. Sirius XM has added a unique and  powerful extension to terrestrial talk radio, including more advertising dollars.

Social Media Platforms. X, Truth Social, Facebook, YouTube, and even TikTok have become battlegrounds. Clips from cable segments go viral; podcasts are shared; memes circulate faster than any Nielsen report. Here, conservative media is less a set of producers and more a participatory culture.15

Is Conservative Media Truly a Market?

Conservative media is no longer a monolith. It is a multi-layered, multi-dimensional ecosystem. Audiences consume across platforms, advertisers buy across channels, and political campaigns exploit every medium. Fox is still first among equals, but it no longer owns the whole field.

For antitrust lawyers, the key issue is whether “conservative media” is a relevant market. In Brown Shoe v. United States (1962), the Supreme Court instructed courts to look for “practical indicia” of a submarket, including cross-elasticity of demand.16  In Ohio v. American Express (2018), the Court emphasized the multi-sided nature of platforms: Harms must be measured across both consumers and counterparties.17

If you define the market narrowly (“right-leaning cable news on MVPDs”), then Fox looks like a monopolist. If you define it broadly (“all conservative political content across TV, radio, podcasts, and digital”), then Fox is one competitor among many.

Applied here, the question becomes: Do consumers treat Fox and Newsmax as substitutes? Do advertisers see them as competing outlets? Do distributors – cable systems, streaming platforms – treat them as alternatives? If so, a submarket may exist. But evidence suggests the market is broader. Pew Research finds that Republicans consume news not only from Fox and Newsmax but also from radio, podcasts, and social platforms.18  Edison Research documents that YouTube is now the most-used podcast platform.19  Nielsen data show ad dollars flowing across TV, digital, and radio.20

In other words, audiences are promiscuous, advertisers are platform-agnostic, and distributors bundle widely. This undercuts the notion that “conservative cable news” is a self-contained market. It is more accurate to describe conservative media as a cultural segment within a larger, fragmented marketplace of political content. The courts may argue doctrine, but the culture has already decided. Conservative media is not confined to simply one medium, particularly cable.

The Cultural and Political Challenge

Market definition is only part of the story. Conservative media faces acute cultural and political challenges as well.

First, litigation. The Dominion lawsuit settled for $787.5 million in 2023.21 The Smartmatic case, still pending, looms large. Defamation exposure threatens not just profits but editorial latitude. Newsmax itself has faced similar suits.22

Second, advertiser flight. Blue-chip advertisers have grown wary of controversy. The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) says rising brand-safety concerns, amplified by social media pressure campaigns, make it harder for conservative outlets to secure mainstream ad buys.23  This explains the pivot to subscription models, direct sponsorships, and alternative ad networks.

Third, the paradox of trust. Pew reports that Republicans trust few sources beyond Fox, yet when Fox diverges from Trump or the MAGA narrative, viewers shift to alternatives.24  Trust is high but brittle. Loyalty is contingent, and audiences are quick to punish perceived apostasy.

Fourth, political entanglement. Conservative media pollster Frank Luntz has long observed that conservative messaging is both a reflection and a driver of partisan politics.25  Conservative outlets are not merely chroniclers; they are participants. They shape primaries, influence fundraising, and set agendas. This intertwining of business and politics intensifies both scrutiny and risk.

Consider the Ohio commuter. He spends mornings with Levin on AM radio, streams Bongino’s podcast at lunch, watches Fox primetime, and shares Tucker clips on X before bed. He is not loyal to one outlet. He is loyal to a worldview. Or consider the 23-year-old in Arizona. She has never seen cable news. She scrolls TikTok, subscribes to Daily Wire+, and catches Shapiro on YouTube. For her, conservative media isn’t a channel. It’s a culture, a mood, a brand.

These are the audiences that the courts, and conservative media, must reckon with.

The Indomitable Trump Effect

One other factor shapes today’s media environment in a way that cannot escape notice: the Trump Effect. President Trump not only understands media. He underpins media. Trump dominates the day by making news, and he manipulates and massages it like no one before – from tweets to television. The president’s impact on communications and the media is both intractable and indelible. It is not an understatement to claim that we live in an all-Trump, all-the-time news cycle that extends well beyond Breitbart, Fox, Newsmax, One America, and X. 

Thus, no examination of conservative media’s future can ignore the gravitational pull of Donald J. Trump. There is no denying that Trump is a big part of the media market today. Whether tariff or trade talks, Gaza, Ukraine, or China, the president owns global discourse in a way that media must take into account.

The Future

And in fact, there is no such thing as a media monopoly today. The level of competition for our attention and advertising dollars is intense and increasing. There are hundreds of content creators, channels, distributors, networks, and more, all vying for the eyeballs of as many people as possible at any given time.

Where, then, is conservative media heading? Here are a few possible scenarios.

Consolidation. Conservative media could centralize around a few powerful players, much as Hollywood consolidated in the studio era. Conservative media leaders leverage their brand to absorb or partner with digital rivals. They launch or acquire podcast networks, simulcasts on Rumble, and expand their presence on X, IG, TikTok, and others.

Fragmentation. Audiences splinter. Younger conservatives bypass cable entirely, consuming their media only via podcasts and social video. Niche platforms thrive, and no single outlet commands hegemonic power. This resembles the Protestant Reformation: a fracturing of authority into multiple congregations. Many pulpits, no pope.

Hybridization. The most likely outcome is a blend. The conservative media incumbent, Fox, remains dominant on cable, but adapts as a cross-platform studio. Newsmax sustains a second-tier cable audience while building digital franchises. Podcasts grow into full-fledged networks. Rumble, Daily Wire+, and Blaze solidify subscription bases. The ecosystem becomes interdependent rather than zero-sum.

Near Term. Fox becomes the integrator as the one brand that spans cable, streaming, audio, and social. It demonstrates to advertisers and courts alike that conservative media is not a monopoly but a contested, cross-platform marketplace.

Constitutional Echoes

None of this is entirely new. In the 1790s, Jeffersonian and Federalist papers waged partisan war. James Madison in Federalist 10 warned of faction, but also trusted a free press to diffuse its dangers. Justice Holmes gave us the “marketplace of ideas.”26  And in Red Lion Broadcasting v. FCC (1969), the Supreme Court upheld the Fairness Doctrine, only for the FCC to repeal it in 1987.27

We are back in that marketplace now, only the stalls are podcasts, the pamphlets are tweets, and the pulpit is Fox at 8 p.m. The names change. The principle endures.

Conservative Media Beyond the Courtroom

Conservative media has evolved from a monolithic network into a sprawling ecosystem. Its future will be shaped by law (antitrust, defamation); technology (streaming, AI personalization); culture (audience trust, advertiser risk); and politics (the fortunes of the GOP). Paradoxically, while conservative media may be the GOP’s greatest strength, it could be an equally great liability, especially among a divided electorate.

Although it is no longer the only game in town, Fox is the undisputed leader, and should remain so for the foreseeable future. Its visionary acumen has been proven not only in ratings and revenue, but in cultural impact and commercial innovation. The Newsmax v. Fox case may never resolve the question of market definition. Even if it does, the judgment will be narrow, bound by the pleadings and facts. The larger story cannot be adjudicated in a courtroom. It is unfolding in living rooms, on car radios, in earbuds, and across social feeds throughout the nation.

Today, conservative media is a movement as much as a market. Its future cannot and will not be determined by judges or regulators alone. It will be written, quite literally, by the millions of Americans who choose where to click, what to stream, and whom to believe. These are the same Americans who are restless for recognition, eager for affirmation, and searching for truth from the media they embrace.

© 2025 Adonis Hoffman

Adonis Hoffman, Esq. is an independent counsel in Washington. He served in senior legal roles at the FCC and in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is a Trustee of The Media Institute and a member of its First Amendment Advisory Council. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Media Institute.

Endnotes

  1. Newsmax Media, Inc. v. Fox News Network, LLC, Order of Dismissal, U.S. District Court, S.D. Fla., Sept. 2025. ↩︎
  2. William F. Buckley Jr., National Review, first issue, 1955. ↩︎
  3. Federal Communications Commission, “The Fairness Doctrine,” 1949; repeal adopted 1987. ↩︎
  4. Paul Matzko, The Radio Right: How a Band of Broadcasters Took On the Federal Government and Built the Modern Conservative Movement (Oxford, 2020). ↩︎
  5. Gabriel Sherman, The Loudest Voice in the Room: How Roger Ailes and Fox News Remade American Politics (Random House, 2014). ↩︎
  6. Pew Research Center, “Fox News and the Transformation of American Cable News,” 2010. ↩︎
  7. Nielsen Media Research, U.S. Primetime Ratings, August 2025. ↩︎
  8. Brian Stelter, “Newsmax Gains as OANN Loses Carriage,” CNN Business, 2023. ↩︎
  9. Rumble Inc., Q2 2025 Investor Report. ↩︎
  10. Daily Wire+, company statements, 2024-2025. ↩︎
  11. Blaze Media, “About Us,” 2025. ↩︎
  12. Edison Research, The Infinite Dial 2025, Top Podcasts Report. ↩︎
  13. Pew Research Center, “Partisan Gaps in News Use and Trust,” 2025. ↩︎
  14. Nielsen Audio, “Top Talk Radio Hosts,” 2024. ↩︎
  15. Pew Research Center, “Americans’ Use of Social Media for News,” 2025. ↩︎
  16. Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U.S. 294 (1962). ↩︎
  17. Ohio v. American Express Co., 585 U.S. 529 (2018).. ↩︎
  18. Pew Research Center, “Partisan Gaps in News Use and Trust,” 2025. ↩︎
  19. Edison Research, Podcast Consumer Report, 2025. ↩︎
  20. Nielsen AdIntel, “Cross-Media Ad Spend Trends,” 2025. ↩︎
  21. Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News Network, Settlement Agreement, April 2023. ↩︎
  22. Smartmatic USA Corp. v. Fox News Network, pending (N.Y. Supreme Court). ↩︎
  23. Interactive Advertising Bureau, “Brand Safety Survey,” 2024. ↩︎
  24. Pew Research Center, “Republicans’ Trust in Fox and Alternatives,” 2025. ↩︎
  25. Frank Luntz, Words that Work: It’s Not What You Say, It’s What People Hear (Hyperion, 2007). ↩︎
  26. Abrams v. United States, 250 U.S. 616 (1919) (Holmes, J., dissenting). ↩︎
  27. Red Lion Broadcasting Co. v. FCC, 395 U.S. 367 (1969). ↩︎